SCENARIO 1:

Australia in economic decline and schools are in decline:

Australia has been in economic decline for some time. This has been a result in the slowdown in the rest of the world, a decline in world trade and consequently the demand for the mineral and agricultural basic commodities that Australia has long exported. The society is becoming fragmented with an increasing demand on welfare whilst other groups are becoming more affluent.

Education and schools have been one of the last areas effected by the declining economy as the development of skills is considered as basic means of recovery. There has been increasing control and direction from head office who have been implementing the directions of the perceived community needs by the politicians. There has been an increasing cry of "return to the basics". Curriculum is strictly controlled and this is monitored through skills testing of students, particularly in literacy and numeracy together with monitoring of the programs by Superintendents. There are fewer funds to maintain resource and staffing levels and schools are more reliant on funds, if any, from the local community. The government reacts to the popular media seemingly without due consideration of the facts and one issue parties have a disproportionate influence.

An inflexibility has crept in where innovation is discouraged as there is no support available. Special programs, especially in the special education and welfare areas, have their limited funds very carefully monitored, with integration of special needs students into normal classes, without any additional support, implemented policy. Students are voluntarily staying longer but there is an increasing disregard for authority, especially abuse and disruptive behaviour by students "acting out". Many students are alienated as they can see no future even though Vocational Courses have a very high priority. Technology has not really been used to improve teaching / learning as its educational value has not been developed and there are insufficient funds for equipment and staff training.

Some parts of the community have lost confidence in state schools and have moved to private schools hence reducing funds available. There has also been a rise in grievances and litigation from dissatisfied parents. Areas of poverty had a strong impact on schools. There are fewer resources, an increase in health problems and despair.

Staff in schools have a lower morale with the increasing controls and public criticism. But the teaching force is stable and higher and specialised qualifications are needed for entry. They have little bargaining power yet industrial issues have been on the rise.

Consultation between all sectors of the community and working for the common good by all seems to be the only way out of the present dilemma.

SCENARIO 2:
Australia has a steady economy and schools are coping:

The Australian economy has been progressing steadily for some time. Demand for exports is reasonable and the world economy is stable although there are some economies that are facing difficult times, especially in Africa and South America.

Education and schools are enjoying a stable period even though there is little growth in resources, especially staffing and use of technology in learning and teaching. Some system frameworks have been developed after consultation and negotiation and there is some flexibility accepted in schools variations. Curriculum is still centrally controlled but there is room for local variations in some areas. State wide testing of basic skills is used to monitor student development and forms a basis for special school programs which can, on application, receive some funding. League tables based on each school’s performance have been resisted and there is recognition that many factors make up a school’s success. Politicians and government expect that their developmental areas based on perceived community needs will be implemented after consultation and advice from educators.

Equity is a factor in policies and this is reflected in more adequate funding for special education, student welfare programs and the distribution of the hardware for technology. There are still gaps in student access to these areas, especially in technology. Here the system seems unable to articulate clear use in learning and teaching and effectively manage the change necessary. There are still huge differences in the infrastructure and support of technology in schools. Staff training and development still lags in technology, integration and welfare although there is more available. Student management is more difficult and known strategies have a declining impact. Despite this there is public confidence in schools especially for the local school. The student exit point is more variable even though there is considerable youth unemployment and a demand for higher qualifications.

Schools are reasonably resourced with a view to equity and maintained in reasonable condition.

Staff feel better supported by the community and the system, there is more training available and pay is determined by more than economic conditions. There is some staff cynicism and a degree of compliancy, but industrial issues are manageable.

Overall the situation is adequate although there is the paradox of increasing student alienation.

SCENARIO 3:
Australia has a resurgent economy and schools are resurgent:

The Australian economy is strong with a continuing high growth rate. There has been a steady growth in employment and consequent less demand on social services. Education is now reaping some of the benefits. There is a better educated workforce available as schools continuous concentration on a balance between general education and vocational / work skills education has worked. Courses are continually being planned and implemented, particularly by TAFE, to satisfy the needs for emerging work skills.

The education system has good frameworks in place for curriculum which allow for variation to satisfy local needs. Schools are responding to this by looking at the needs of the local community and adapting courses to satisfy these needs whilst still ensuring that basic skills have a high priority. This has led to considerable variations, particularly in school organisation. School staffs generally have responded positively to the changes available but there are some who feel there is too much freedom and are concerned with the rapidity of change.

Cooperation, consultation and negotiation are the basis of the political/educational interface. With more funds available it is easier to demonstrate what is being done for students and the increased resources available. There is less political interpretation of community needs and less political pressure for the implementation of certain programs. The difference between the education policies of the major parties is minor. Community confidence in schools has risen and the drift from state to private schools is negligible.

The system has appropriate policies in place and there is an emphasis on equity and student welfare. Student management seems to have become more difficult and new strategies are being sought. Many new programs are being developed to try to reconcile the concerns of youth and these are being supported through funding of resources and personnel. With jobs more readily available, though youth unemployment is still high, many students seem to be less motivated and questioning of the role of their education including how long they should stay in school / education. Teaching and learning are being researched to try and improve the pedagogy used in education.

Staff are better supported by the system in terms of policy, training and development, personnel and technology. Morale is higher though there is a larger turnover of staff due to the availability of jobs in industry. Market forces, within the free market ideology, are playing a larger part in salary and conditions negotiations. There are more para-professionals being used to support teachers.

Technology is still an area of concern with difficulties encountered in developing an overall plan and in finding approaches which will satisfy the quality of the learning, the social needs of the students and the role of staff. Due to industry demands technical support is dwindling though this is being addressed flexibly by schools.

Overall all groups involved with education are excited about the future as resources become available to ensure quality outcomes.