OVERVIEW OF THE FUTURE METHODOLOGY and its APPLICATION to the NSW SECONDARY PRINCIPALS COUNCIL "FUTURES PROJECT"

D1 OVERVIEW OF FUTURESCAN

D1.1 Description of Futurescan

Futurescan is a technique used for Environmental Scanning.

"Environmental scanning is to reconcile sensitivity to new and significant information with careful, systematic selection criteria." ... "It is quintessentially an information- and-knowledge-based activity." (Slaughter, 1999, 2)

"Futurescan is a process that allows its operator to analyse part of the environment, for example, a system or an organisation. It requires the operator to use a high level of intellectual skill to analyse the system or organisation with a framework. This framework is used to help filter through new information as it emerges. The frame must be used repeatedly to ensure significant information is not missed."

During the process with the NSW Secondary Principals Council the facilitator, Dr Rick Slaughter, emphasised that Futurescan is a "so called ‘front end’ process leading on to further work within the organisation" and the technique should "avoid over-promising" and is "not predictive". (Slaughter, 1999, 4)

D1.2 Steps in the Futurescan Process

The Futurescan process sets out seven steps to be taken in analysing an environment.

These steps are:

1. "Preparation.

2. Define the nature of the organisation (SWOTs, Indicators).

3. Identify trends and events.

4. Analyse trends and events (Use Cross-Impact matrices).

5. Develop outline scenarios.

6. Explore strategic options.

7. Incorporate into strategic management." (Slaughter, 18/11/98)

D1.3 Stages in the Futurescan Process

Dr Rick Slaughter states that the above steps are best undertaken within five stages in the Futurescan process. These stages are:

1."Preparation.
2. An environmental scanning workshop.
3. Immediate analysis and report
4. A strategic options workshop.
5. Follow-up workshop." (Slaughter, 1999, 4) (See Appendix U of the Green Paper)

Reference: (Chapter 5.4 from this book is Appendix U in the Green Paper)

R.Slaughter, 1999, Chapter 5.4 from Futures for the Third Millennium - Enabling the Forward View, Prospect, Sydney

D2  APPLICATION OF FUTURESCAN TO THE NSW SECONDARY PRINCIPALS COUNCIL "FUTURES PROJECT".

D2.1 Stage1: Preparation

The purpose of this stage to complete Step 1: Preparation:

Stage 1: Preparation includes:

• organisation of the top management,
• meeting with the Facilitator,
• introduction to the Futurescan technique,
• compilation of a book containing information about the organisation and its environment.

The New South Wales Secondary Principals Council took the following preparation steps:

D2.1.1 The executive of the council identified a need to take a pro-active approach to the future and the development of policy within the Department of Education and Training. It made a commitment to a Futures Project. It allocated resources and appointed a Project Director.

D2.1.1 The council executive identified the Policy areas and positions that would require greatest change in the future using The National Goals of Schooling.

D2.1.3 At Annual Conference 1998 there was a call for interested members to be leaders and to form teams in the various developmental/policy areas which were identified as areas which will undergo greatest change in the future.

D2.1.4 A futures consultant, Dr Rick Slaughter from The Futures Study Centre, Melbourne, was employed and his methodology, viz. Futurescan, adopted.

D2.1.5 The Department of Education and Training was approached to participate in the process. They agreed to provide personnel and funding although the process remained the responsibility of the NSW Secondary Principals Council.

D2.1.6 At a Futures Conference on August 2/3, 1998 Dr Slaughter addressed Council Executive and Team leaders. He outlined the Futurescan process. The process was adapted to the educational environment and the specific needs of the Council.  eg. Use of several teams instead one team.

D2.1.7 Richard Neville, Director of the Futures Foundation, and leading commentator on future trends addressed the Futures Teams on 19th August, 1998.

D2.2  Stage 2: Environmental Scanning Workshop

The purpose of this stage was to complete:

Step 2 - Define the Nature of the organisation and;

Step 3 - Identify Trends and Events.

Stage 2 - Environmental Scanning Workshop involves:

• a form of brainstorming to identify "future external trends and events which may affect the organisation" (ibid., 4).

• reducing these ideas to a suitable numbers of the most significant ideas.

Scanning Workshop steps:

D2.2.1 A session was conducted with team leaders and members using the process of Grouputer to collate ideas. Groups defined by team areas responded to a series of questions. Keyboards linked to a computer projected the responses on to a screen. These were then summarised, eliminating repetition and capturing the essence of the most significant ideas. (See Appendix F in the Green Paper - Sample Response to Question 1 using Grouputer Technology)

D2.2.2 Each team took and developed the ideas most applicable to their team.

D2.2.3 Each team conducted a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis on August 20,1998, on their area of responsibility and developed a list of initial trends. The SWOT analysis was put aside for the moment. (See Appendix E – SWOT Analysis, Initial Trends and Initial Strategic Options for each Team.
NB: The Initial Trends and Initial Strategic Options in Appendix E come from items D2.2.4 and D2.2.5 below.)

D2.2.4 Each Group used a brainstorm technique to generate trends and events that could have a significant effect on their topic area in the next 10 years.
(See Appendix F for an example from the Student Learning Team.)

D2.2.5 These trends were then put into a cross-impact matrix analysis against each other to determine the "top 5". (See Appendix G, Sample Trends Cross-Impact Analysis from Student Learning Team.)

D2.3 Stage 3: Immediate Analysis and Report

The purpose of this stage was to complete:

Step 4 - Analyse Trends and Events and;

Step 5 - Develop outline scenarios

The New South Wales Secondary Principals Council took the following steps as part of the Immediate Analysis and Report:

D2.3.1 A Cross-Matrix was developed on August 20, 1998. Two of each of the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats was rated against the trends using a scale of +10 to - 10. + 10 indicated strong support for the trend, 0 indicated no effect and - 10 indicated strong opposition. Scores were added horizontally to identify those trends most likely, to be successful.
(See Appendix H - Cross-Impact Analysis. Sample from Student Learning Team)

D2.3.2 Scenarios were introduced. A Scenario is a description of the types of economic/political/educational/business situations likely to apply in the future. Three types of scenarios were developed based on whether the economy was "In Decline", "Constant" or "Resurgent". The scenarios provided a "reality check" to determine whether the trend could apply within the given scenario. Three scenarios were initially supplied by Dr Rick Slaughter giving possible Australian economic/political descriptions under the headings of "In Decline", "Constant" and "Resurgent". Teams developed strategic options to cope with the combination of trends and scenarios. (See Appendix M in the Green Paper: Three Scenario Shells from Dr Rick Slaughter.)

D2.3.3 Director analysed the output of the two days and the results distributed to the teams for further analysis. Some teams conducted further meetings to develop strategic options. (The summary of this analysis is Appendix E.)

D2.3.4 The Leadership Group of the Council (President, Vice-President and Project Director supported by two Project Officers) took the trends identified and developed indicators for the developmental situations of "In Decline", "Constant" and "Resurgent". (See Appendix N in the Green Paper - An Analysis of the Team Trends to Build Scenarios in the Futurescan Model.)
Scenarios were developed from the analysis to use as Reality Checks in Stage 4: Strategic Options. (See Appendix I - Three Educational Scenarios Shells developed by the Council team.)

D2.4 Stage 4: A Strategic Options Workshop

The purpose of this stage was to complete:

Step 6: Explore Strategic Options

The New South Wales Secondary Principals Council took the following steps in the Strategic Options Workshop:

D2.4.1 Some Teams met separately to further develop and explore trends and options for their area.

D2.4.2 On November 18, 1998 some members of the Council Executive, Futures Project Team Leaders and some Team Members met with Dr Rick Slaughter to consider any concerns about the process, the directions being taken and ways to formulate the options.

D2.4.3 The process of Futurescan was reiterated and another Environmental Scanning technique called "Near Futures Context" or "Creating Future Context" introduced. This technique used of six questions to review and derive a structural overview.

The questions were:

1. What were the main continuities?
2. What were the major trends?
3. What were the important change processes?
4. What were the most serious problems?
5. What were new factors "in the pipeline"?
6. What were sources of inspiration and hope?

These questions were illustrated globally (See Appendix P of the Green Paper for Questions used to Further Develop the Strategic Options - "New Futures Context or Creating Futures Context"). The questions were used by the teams as a means of refining and giving further context to the work done to date. This was supplemented by the Educational Scenarios. (See Appendix I)

D2.4.4 On November 19,1998 teams met and used the questions from D2.4.3 , above, as a means to refine options and develop Strategic Options. (See Appendix Q of the Green Paper for the discussion of the questions by the Managing Change / School Culture Team).
For each strategic option the Teams analysed the implications for the Department; Principals and Schools and actions that the Council could undertake.

D2.4.5 Each Team developed reports based on their Strategic options for the future together with the implications for the Department, Principals and Schools and Actions for the Council. (See Appendix J - Draft reports from Futures Teams. and Appendix S in the Green Paper for the Proforma used for the draft reports.) Teams did continue to meet and refine their Draft Reports and the latest draft is used in Appendix J.

D2.4.6 These draft reports were to form the basis of discussions with the Department of Education and Training and this was started on 30th November, 1998 with the Leadership of the Futures Project and NSW Secondary Principals Council meeting two Departmental Assistant Directors-General and Director Jim Harkin.

D2.4.7 The draft reports formed the basis of the development of a Discussion Paper by the Project Director. The initial draft Discussion Paper was completed in February 1999 and included strategic options and recommendations for future directions.

D2.5 Stage 5: Follow Up Workshops

The purpose of this stage was to commence:

Step 7: Incorporation into Strategic Management

The New South Wales Secondary Principals Council took the steps in the Follow-up Workshops:

D2.5.1 The Discussion Paper was reviewed at a meeting of the Executive, Team Leaders and Critical Friends on March 4, 1999. The essence of the paper was accepted but considerable rewriting was recommended. The rewritten paper was to be produced as a Green Paper.

D2.5.2 The Green Paper was distributed to all participants in the Futures Project and the additional Secondary Principals and others who attended the "Futures Conference" on April 29/30,1999. Recommendations for NSW Secondary Principals Council Strategic Options and Policy for the future will be based on the Green Paper.

D2.5.3 The Green Paper together with the Strategic Options for the Future Directions of Secondary Education in NSW and NSW Secondary Principals Council policy, from the above conference, will become the Draft White Paper. During the development of the Draft White Paper Geoff Scott, Marc Bowles and Chris Deer as well as group leaders from the April Conference will be asked to critically appraise the developmental drafts. The Draft White Paper will be distributed, to all members of the NSW Secondary Principals Council before Annual Conference. Copies will be distributed to Department of Education and Training and NSW Teachers Federation participants. Copies will also be given to other interested parties.

D2.5.4 At the NSWSPC Annual Conference June 15-17, 1999 members of the council in business sessions will consider the Draft White Paper and the Strategic Options put forward for critical appraisal and further constructive comment. The outcomes will finally be considered at a State Assembly Meeting and if approved will form the basis of NSW Secondary Principals Council views of the future direction of education and its policy.

Reference:

R.Slaughter, 1999, Chapter 5.4 from Futures for the Third Millennium - Enabling the Forward View, Prospect, Sydney